A third consecutive overruning system will make its way across the Northeast tonight into tomorrow. This one looks considerably warmer than either of the last two systems, especially aloft, and consequently will be quite a bit messier for more people. Snow will begin for areas north of NYC and the South Coast around midnight, although dry air will keep totals to a minimum for the population centers before the changeover. Warm air aloft with CAD at the surface will result in mostly freezing rain at onset for the higher elevations of Pennsylvania and upstate New York as has been true with the last two systems. By tomorrow morning, warm air aloft and at the surface will have caused most areas in the coastal plain south of the MA-NH border to flip to all rain, with minimal sleet/ice in between. However, cold air at the surface will be more stubborn in northern New England, and as warm air aloft continues to work northward with the low the southern Greens and NH Lakes Region will have flipped to sleet and freezing rain. As the low cuts straight into Canada tomorrow afternoon, even the northern Greens, Whites, and interior Maine north nearly to the Katahdin massif will end with a period of freezing rain, although damage to the snowpack in these areas should remain minimal.

February ushered in a pattern favoring a storm track much further north than the suppressed one we had seen all of January, and with this pattern looks to come a train of overrunning systems every few days for at least the next couple of weeks. The first of these systems will move through the Northeast quite quickly, beginning later tonight and exiting by tomorrow evening. Areas of New England north and east of about I-89 look to stay all snow, but most of the interior will recieve a front-end thump then switch over to sleet and freezing rain due to a warm nose further up in the atmosphere. Ice accumulations could become especially problematic in western Maryland and much of Pennsylvania, with only a light glaze for most others. The population centers along the I-95 corridor will also begin with snow and sleet, but by the afternoon these cities and really all of the coastal plain Boston southwards will rise above freezing and flip to all rain. Areas to the northwest of the fall line are likely to remain below freezing however, and any precipitation that falls here will be frozen.

The clipper forecast to move through New England tonight looks to take a nearly identical setup to the clipper that moved through five nights ago, down to the temperatures at the surface across the region. The only two differences are the lack of a squall line behind the clipper, although the squall line with the last clipper underwhelmed most anyway, and a track slightly further to the south. This will mean that the swath of heaviest snow will take shape over southern New England instead of central New England. Specifically, the highest totals will be concentrated in an area approximately located west of I-190/395, east of the Hudson River, south of the MA-VT border, and away from the immediate coast. 3-6" is likely with the highest totals in the Berks, and winter weather advisories have been posted for this region. Elsewhere, totals in the 1-3" range are expected eastward from I-190/395 to the coast and down to the NYC metro save for the immediate coast.

After upper 30s and rain most of the day with a clipper moving through, some light back-end snow is possible tonight as cold air catches up with the exiting system. Northern New England saw snow for the entirety of the event, while the rain-snow line slowly moved south through central New England through the afternoon and continues to do so. Within the hour it is forecast to reach Route 2, and then the Pike by midnight. The heaviest precipitation has mostly exited the region already, and any snow after the changeover will be light for all of southern New England. This combined with marginal temperatures and warm, wet ground will make accumulation difficult, and most are likely to underperform as is usually the case with back-end snow events. Totals will be in the C-1" range for most, with up to 2" possible close to the MA-NH border.

Another clipper will make its way across the Northeast tonight into tomorrow to close out the month. A cold front ushered in Arctic air this morning with a line of strong snow showers but even stronger straight-line winds. Behind it, a quick-moving low pressure will track southeast from its current location over the Michigan UP through central New England to the Maine coast by tomorrow afternoon. A broad precip shield currently extends well east of the low center just north of the warm front associated with the low, and the Arctic air that arrived this morning will set the stage for most of this to fall as snow across New England. Precipitation will extend as far south as coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island at onset later tonight but the southern edge will quickly correct north with warmer, drier air behind the warm front as it lifts north. Still, high snow-to-liquid ratios will allow a widespread 1-2" to fall north of the MA-CT border within a few hours. In northern New England, where the warm front will fail to reach and snow will fall through the duration, totals will be closer to 2-5", with 6"+ possible along the spine of Vermont and in the Whites. After a brief dry slot tomorrow morning, one final round of snow is possible with a potent squall line associated with the cold front behind the system as it exits.

A historic snowstorm is shaping up for the Deep South over the next two days. Winter Storm Warnings currently extend from Port Mansfield, Texas along the Gulf Coast to Appalachicola, Florida and across the Florida Panhandle to the Atlantic. An area of low pressure will form later tonight over the Gulf of Mexico offshore South Texas, with its associated precip shield extending a few hundred miles inland. Precipitation will start as freezing rain for many, but cold air will work its way down quickly and allow areas north of I-10 to flip to snow. Areas to the south of I-10 could remain with frz rain for the duration of the storm, which could be especially dangerous. By tomorrow morning, the low will begin to slide eastward in the GoM, by which point cities such as Houston and Beaumont will have picked up 1-3" of snow, more than they've seen in decades. As the system intensifies offshore, so will the precip shield, and the southern third of Louisiana could hit the jackpot. Even NOLA could pick up close to 6", which would be the most snow from a single event there since 1895.

After Louisiana, the system will begin to accelerate, so the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida will not pick up quite as much snow, although up to 3" is still possible. It's looking increasingly likely that Mobile, for example, will fail to reach their record single event snowfall of 3.6", although the possibility can't be ruled out yet. Once the low moves out over the Atlantic, it will strengthen once more, potentially allowing for another bullseye along the Carolina coast. When all is said and done, millions in the Deep South will have received more snow than they have seen in their whole lives, and likely more than these locations will receive again by the end of our lifetimes.

A snowstorm will impact the whole Northeast from tomorrow afternoon into MLK Day, with very cold Siberian air following behind it. This looks to be the first snowstorm this season significant enough for the coast for me to create a forecast. The different model suites have started to come into agreement although ptype maps still show quite significant variation with the low track, the northernmost extent of the rain-snow line, and the northernmost extent of the precip field. Fortunately, my forecast relies not on ptype maps but other metrics where models show more agreement, most notably fgen. A robust frontogenesis band looks to set up well NW of the low center, extending from the Catskills to Downeast Maine, and I'm confident there will be a swath of double-digit snowfall totals in this region. In my map I have identified two potential bullseye zones, where the ceiling is very high and some will likely pick up over a foot. Further to the southeast, I have done my best to approximate the northernmost extent of the rain-snow line by splitting the difference between the various models and drawn the gradient near the coast accordingly. Despite solid dynamics, the limiting factor for all locations will be the duration, as this storm will be moving very fast and the bulk of the snow will fall within a period of about six to eight hours for most.

As mentioned, a very cold airmass originating from Siberia will be moving into not just the Northeast but almost the entire country behind this system, setting the stage for a potentially record-breaking Southern snowstorm early next week, with snow and ice extending down to the Gulf Coast and cities such as Houston, New Orleans, and Mobile picking up more snow than they've seen in decades. It's too early to get into details now, but I will have a post on this system, which is justifiably more salient in a lot of people's minds than the Northeast snowstorm, on Monday.

Cold air across the entire eastern two-thirds of the country has set the stage for the first significant Southern snowstorm in four years. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings extend from northeastern Texas and the Dallas metro through southeastern Oklahoma, Shreveport, the entire states of Arkansas and Tennessee, the southern half of Kentucky, the northern two-thirds of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and the western Carolinas, and are likely to be extended east to the Carolina coast by tomorrow. A significant piece of energy in the Southern jet stream will consolidate in the upper atmosphere by tomorrow morning which will result in cyclogenesis at the surface and a broad precip field forming with the new low, initially spanning most of the states of Texas and Oklahoma along with southern Kansas. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain south of I-20, but cold enough for snow and, more worryingly, freezing rain north of that line. Many areas will see either a front-end or back-end thump, or both, of wintry precipitation, flipping to rain in between as the low pressure drags warm air up from the Gulf. Conditions could get especially messy along and just north of US-80 between Shreveport and Montgomery Thursday night with freezing rain as a result of a robust warm nose aloft.

By Friday, this system will begin interacting with a clipper associated with another piece of energy in the Northern stream, and a light snow shield will extend all the way up to the Canadian border from northern Georgia and South Carolina. A few days ago, it was looking like these two pieces of energy would phase and slow down, allowing a much stronger low to form offshore the Carolinas and Virginia and bomb out as it tracked north along the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in a classic Miller B nor'eastern with heavy snow all the way up the I-95 corridor. The GFS was the main proponent of this solution, but it has since caved to the Euro, which is a near miss with the phase and a resulting near miss with the surface low, which goes OTS just far enough out to spare the Northeast from anything but light snow. Instead, the focus is on the I-40 corridor from Arkansas east to the Atlantic to pick up some of their biggest snowfall totals in years, while areas a little to the south potentially deal with an impactful ice storm.

I'm a little late making this post, as precipitation is already moving into the Ohio Valley, but the first real snowstorm this winter, and in multiple winters for some, is imminent for portions of the mid-Atlantic and even the northern Southeast. Over the past day, this system has produced heavy snow, ice, and even blizzard conditions from the central Plains eastward to the Ohio Valley, while severe storms have popped up with a QLCS extending down to the Gulf Coast in the warm sector. Tonight into tomorrow, the system moves east into the mid-Atlantic, where dynamics look favorable for a swath of very heavy snow and a widespread area of at least plowable snow save for some mixing issues on the southern fringe. Modeling currently has a robust frontogenesis band stretching from southern Pennsylvania into south Jersey just north of the Mason-Dixon Line later tonight, although wobbles in either direction are possible and could be significant. I believe many will get over a foot of snow out of this where the axis of the heaviest band sets up somewhere between DC and Philadelphia, while most of the rest of the region from central Virginia to central Jersey gets a 3-8" event. Moisture is abundant especially on the southern side of the precip shield, but mixing with sleet and rain may limit totals south of and even including the DC metro. All areas down to the Virginia-North Carolina border should flip to snow on the backside of the system later tomorrow, and accordingly Winter Storm Warnings are in place. For many tomorrow will be their first snow day in a couple of winters, as the previous few have favored the Northeast in terms of the bigger snowstorms.

Strong westerly winds have begun ushering in colder air over the last day, which has even resulted in some lake-effect snow bands reaching western New England off of Lake Ontario today. Behind the cold air, a mesoscale low associated with a shortwave trough in the upper atmosphere will move into the southern Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow afternoon. Frontogenesis may occur a few dozen miles from the coast where the colder airmass inland meets the warmer airmass off the ocean, which will keep rates high enough to overcome marginal temperatures and allow precipitation to stay as snow. I expect a small swath to pick up over 2" where frontogenesis is strongest, while most of the rest of the region between Baltimore and NYC picks up C-2". Looking ahead, a much stronger system with a longwave trough may move from west to east favoring many of these same areas later this weekend, but it's too early to begin to talk about specifics for that one.

After a brief warmup in late December which melted any existing snowpack for just about everyone in the East outside of the 'Dacks, the spine of Vermont, and the Whites, the cold looks to return in a big way by this weekend, and it'll be sticking around at least through mid-month. A sustained negative NAO, EPO, and AO combined with the PNA turning positive within the next few days will allow a trough to dig into the eastern US all the while a ridge strengthens over the West. This ridge will allow cold air to dive south from the Arctic and become entrained in the trough. Snow possibilities, as always, are uncertain, but if nothing else it's going to get cold and stay cold for at least the next couple of weeks. On the topic of snow, the pattern actually looks to promote suppression at least initially, with a trough axis straight down the Northeast. Areas such as the Mid-Atlantic and even the Southeast look to be more favored than New England for the stronger systems. Upslope and lake-effect will keep the snow machine cranking for the interior, but coastal New England may come out the big losers from this pattern. The best chance for these areas is when the trough weakens mid-month, which may allow a classic Miller A nor'easter to ride up the entire Eastern Seaboard.

A complex system will bring light snowfall across the Northeast just in time for Christmas, even down to the coast. A clipper is currently tracking across the Upper Midwest. Moisture from this system will feed into a strengthening coastal low offshore tonight. The exact track of the low hasn't been pinpointed by the models yet, and even as I'm writing this the 00z NAM is coming in about 60 miles NW of the previous run. The most likely scenario at this point is for the low to track well to the southeast of southern New England with most of the precip shield remaining offshore, and only fringe bands making it onto southeastern New England Friday afternoon. The possibility remains for a narrow band of moderate snow to develop well outside the center of low pressure somewhere over eastern New England, and this will be a nowcast situation come tomorrow. Meanwhile, an inverted trough (IVT) will set up further west over the mid-Atlantic, with an axis running north to south basically along the state of New Jersey. As moisture feeds back into the inverted trough Friday night into Saturday morning, it's possible for a narrow swath of 2-4" to set up along the IVT axis. This will be another nowcast situation. When all is said and done, at least some parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England will have received enough snow for their first white Christmas in years.

For the last four winters in a row, a Grinch storm has come through the Northeast with unseasonably warm temps and heavy rain to spoil the winter fun within the few days before Christmas. Unfortunately, this year looks to be no exception, although this year's Grinch storm is coming a little earlier. This system is the classic cutter, with a strong low tracking nearly straight north through the Ohio Valley and much of the Northeast, including the interior, ending up in the warm sector south of the warm front for the bulk of the precipitation. As the warm front pulls through early tomorrow morning, temperatures will rise into the 60s in southern New England and 50s in the lower elevations of northern New England, with even the highest elevations of the Whites above treeline reaching the 40s. Temperatures will plummet once again after the passage of the cold front later tomorrow evening, but not until several inches of rain have fallen and done their damage. As mentioned in several previous blog posts, I had been planning an ascent of the Lion Head Winter Route in December, and luckily for me the route opened this weekend and I was able to get my ascent out of the way on a fairly good weather day on Monday. After this storm, the route will probably be closed for the rest of the month with no interior snowstorms to replenish the snowpack in sight.

Another clipper looks to make its way across New England overnight tonight into Sunday. Unlike the midweek system, this one should be a much more typical clipper, fast-moving with minor totals across the board. Temperatures will be colder than with the last system, so elevation will play less of a role, although the Whites and spine of Vermont are likely to end up with over 6" as opposed to 1-3" for most of the rest of the region. There is still some disagreement among the models about the southern extent of the snow shield. The GFS suite keeps snowfall mostly confined to northern New England, while the Canadian suite brings 1"+ totals well into southern New England, even along the coast. There is similar disagreement between the NAM and HRRR respectively, but that is not surprising considering their usual biases. At the moment the NWS office in Boston is favoring the CMC/HRRR solution while NWS Gray is leaning towards the GFS/NAM solution. Either models will resolve their differences with the 12z or even 00z suite today, or it'll end up being a nowcast situation. Looking ahead, the pattern looks to flip warm briefly next week with a pair of cutters. Although it will get cold again near the end of the month, it doesn't look like the new pattern will be nearly as active as this one was, so this clipper will be the last chance of snow for the lower elevations for at least a couple of weeks.

As mentioned in the previous post, the current pattern tends to suppress stronger systems well to the south, but clippers can still make it through to the Northeast, and we have one coming Wednesday night through Thursday night. Clippers typically move quickly through the region with widespread light snow not amounting to more than a few inches, but this one looks to be much stronger and slower than most clippers. As a result, some fairly robust snow bands will be able to set up especially over the higher elevations of northern New England, and for these areas this system will feel more like a genuine snowstorm than a clipper. Like most storms so far this winter, this one will favor interior areas, although coastal southern New England and even the NYC metro could pick up their first coatings of the season. Meanwhile, widespread totals of 4-8" are likely along the spine of Vermont and below treeline in the Whites, with 8-12" above treeline. For the Whites these numbers may end up too conservative, since guidance is hinting at the most robust snow band setting up there. Including upslope snow showers during the 24 hours after the system exits, the Presidentials and Franconias could easily be looking at over a foot of fresh snow, maybe up to a foot and a half. The NBM, which I've attached on the right, is currently forecasting up to two feet for the highest summits, although I do think these totals are perhaps a little too bullish. Hopefully enough snow falls to get the Lion Head Winter Route open this weekend, so I can get my planned ascent of it out of the way before a parade of cutters potentially rains on the parade starting next week.

November started out very warm for the East with a persistent ridge in control for the first half of the month. Near the end of the month, teleconnections did a full 180 with the NAO and EPO flipping negative and the PNA flipping positive all at once, and the ridge over the East was replaced by a monster trough. This remains the pattern heading into December, one of the coldest December patterns for the East in recent memory,. However, it may not be the best pattern for snow especially in the interior Northeast, and here's why. The trough in the upper troposphere is positively tilted, with the axis running straight through the Northeast. Systems at the surface tend to track along the northern side of ridges and the southern side of troughs. With this pattern, stronger systems especially will be dragged south by the jet stream as they make their way east across the Ohio Valley, and then accelerate eastward out to sea from the coast, and only weaker clippers, which are affected less by the jet stream, may track further north and bring some snow to the Northeast. In the weather world we call this suppression. To avoid suppression, you want a negatively tilted trough centered further west over the Ohio Valley, and fortunately we may be getting just that later in the month, as the NAO and EPO regress closer to neutral with the PNA remaining positive. Even if this causes the trough to weaken a little, it's quite difficult to break out of a cold pattern once it gets going, and come mid-month it may finally be the Northeast's time to shine in terms of snowfall.

As discussed a few days earlier, a system has impacted the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada on Thanksgiving weekend, first with heavy snowfall from the primary low on Thursday and then snow squalls with a series of shortwaves behind it. We were in Quebec City for the weekend, and including the drives there and back I've been able to experience quite a few aspects of this system. Here's a breakdown. First, on Thursday we drove up to Quebec City, leaving our home in Lexington, Massachusetts at around 10:00 AM. Our car thermometer started out at 41°, slowly falling as we drove north, with rain picking up in intensity as the morning progressed. By the time we had made it to Tilton, the temperature had fallen to 32°, and precipitation abruptly flipped to heavy, wet snow. Seeing this, I pulled out my camera and began shooting a timelapse (pictured). Conditions remained more or less the same all the way through Franconia Notch, with the temperature hovering around freezing and snow not backing off in intensity. On the other side of the notch, when we began to descend in elevation, the temperature quickly rose back to 33°, and precipitation flipped back to rain, after which I ended the timelapse. Although we encountered snow again on our brief crossing of the Vermont NEK, precipitation remained as rain for most of the rest of the drive to Quebec City, and all the way through the night for that matter. Fast forward to Friday night, when the original system had passed and temperatures had dropped behind it, setting the stage for accumulating snow with a shortwave trough coming through. Our hotel was in Saint-Anne, alongside the St. Lawrence River, and temperatures were marginal, but we still picked up 0.5" of snow overnight (pictured). Finally, another shortwave resulted in the formation of snow squalls across both Quebec and northern New England during our drive back home on Saturday, and we ran into a short but intense band just after sunset in the Vermont NEK (not pictured).

I've held off on making this post for the last two days as globals have shown not insignificant levels of disagreement with this storm even within the 84-hour range. For days, the Euro has been consistently showing a slower, more amped system with plowable snowfall for much of interior New England and double-digit snowfall in the Whites and along the spine of Vermont, while the GFS and CMC have been much more progressive showing only minor totals for the same areas. Notably, during this whole period of disagreement, a minor clipper system had yet to pass through the region, which finally happened yesterday into last night. It seems models have been able to initialize far more accurately after the passage of the clipper, and the three major models are finally in agreement as of the 12z cycle this morning. I had been rooting for the Euro solution both due to my plans for a winter ascent of Lion Head in the next couple of weeks and so I could get some shots of Quebec City in the snow while we're there this weekend, and lucky for me the GFS and CMC both caved to the Euro today. This is a much simpler/less complex system than the one that came through last week, with only one area of low pressure involved, but let's break it down anyway.

A weak area of low pressure associated with a broad, disorganized precip field to its north is currently moving over Oklahoma. The low looks to accelerate through this afternoon, moving into the Ohio Valley overnight. By early Thursday morning, precip will begin to fall in parts of Pennsylvania and New York, with snow for the higher elevations of the Catskills and rain elsewhere. Much like the previous system, cold air will become entrained in the circulation as the low deepens, all the while precip rates intensify, and much of the interior will violently flip to wet snow late Thursday morning. By this time, precip will have moved into New England, with snow from onset along the spine of Vermont and in the White Mountains and rain flipping to snow for much of the rest of the interior. The center of the low will hug the coast as its pressure drops into the low 990s, and the precip shield will extend well past the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, although the heaviest snow will remain confined to the American side of the border. By late Thursday night, the low will begin to pull away from New England, although light snow will linger through Friday morning. Upslope-favored locations will likely continue seeing snow showers into Saturday. Once again, the highest ranges of the Whites are favored to be the big winners, with upwards of a foot and a half possible.

Earlier this month, I predicted the prevailing pattern in November would be warm and dry due to a persistent ridge over the East. Up to this point, my prediction has held true. I was even up in the Whites this weekend and there were less than two inches of snowpack all the way up to treeline, lower than I've ever seen it at this point in the season. However, the pattern looks to change in a big way the last week of the month, starting with a complex system of at least three areas of low pressure making their way across the Northeast over the next five days. Let's break it down. 

First, the primary low, which is currently over southern Manitoba, looks to spawn a secondary low over the Upper Midwest sometime within the next day. This low will track northeast over the LP of Michigan while strengthening, then retrograde back west and then south in the 36-48 hour range. Some energy from this low will move out ahead into the interior Northeast by this time, spawning a coastal low sometime during the day Thursday. By this time, snow showers from the secondary low will have overtaken much of Ohio and West Virginia, with eastern Kentucky and the Blue Ridge Mountains down into western North Carolina getting into the action by Thursday night. Precipitation will begin as rain for most of the interior Northeast, but as the coastal low strengthens overnight Thursday it will drag cold air down with it, and much of Pennsylvania and upstate New York will dip to the 30s. Dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates will bring temps down further, perhaps just enough for many of these areas to flip to heavy wet snow by Friday morning, perhaps even down into portions of the NYC metro. 

The forecast becomes less clear after this, but by the weekend it looks like some energy from the system will have made it offshore, potentially spawning another coastal low. This would be the fourth low involved in this system if it verifies. This is when the ridge of mountains down Vermont and the White Mountains of New Hampshire may get into the action. Before this, over a foot of snow is already possible above treeline where temperatures will be just cold enough for snow with the first coastal low, but the second coastal low could bring the snowline down to the surrounding mountain towns. By early next week, this low will have pulled away, but upslope snow showers will continue through Tuesday in the Whites. It should come as no surprise that the highest elevations of the Franconias and Presidentials will come out the big winners after this system, with totals potentially exceeding two feet. Maybe my planned winter ascent of Lion Head in December isn't so doomed after all.

This year's North Atlantic tropical cyclone season has certainly defied expectations, first with a historic Category 5 hurricane in the Main Development Region in early July, then nearly complete silence for over two months until late September, then a flurry of late-season activity including another Category 5 and six other hurricanes. It looks like it's not quite done yet, with Invest 99L likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week and perhaps a hurricane later this weekend or next week. The next name on the list is Sara. Unfortunately, Sara doesn't look likely to be a fish storm, instead taking a similar track as Category 3 Hurricane Rafael earlier this month into the Gulf. High pressure in the western Gulf is likely to block it and force it onto the West Coast of Florida, for what feels like the dozenth time since 2021. Intensity forecasts range from a strong tropical storm to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane. If the latter holds true, this will be the first year since 2020 with two major hurricanes in November, when twin Category 4 hurricanes Eta and Iota hit Central America. The forecast becomes unclear after 99L's crossing of Florida, especially with its slow forward speed, with some models taking it into New England, some into Atlantic Canada, and some out to sea.

After a snowy October for interior New England with a couple of decent snowstorms amounting to nearly 30" total in the Whites and frequent cold shots down to the coast, November looks to bring quite the opposite. The pattern for the month ahead looks to entail a monster ridge over the East, which has already taken shape over the last few days, and troughing out West, the opposite of the pattern in October. We hit the mid-70s today in Lexington with even higher temperatures forecasted for tomorrow, and I don't expect daily high temperatures to drop below 60° more than once or twice over at least the next two weeks. Upper-level disturbances may cause the ridge to weaken at times and briefly allow cold air in, which I think will be the only times the Whites receive any snow at all this month. This is a bold take considering historical averages, but I predict the summit of Washington will receive less snow in November than they did in October this year. Not great news for myself considering my plans for a winter ascent of Lion Head in December.

Here's the NWS snowfall forecast through Wednesday for the Northeast. A strong pressure gradient between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure over the Upper Midwest will create a persistent northwesterly flow over the mountains of upstate NY and New England. This will allow for upslope snow showers to develop over the usual upslope-favored locations, primarily on the west and northwest sides of prominent mountain ranges. The Presidentials and Adirondack High Peaks could receive up to a foot, with several inches possible on other ranges of the Whites and 'Dacks and along the ridge of the Green Mountains in Vermont. Snow, and winds, should briefly lull early Tuesday morning, picking up again Tuesday evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The bulk of the accumulation should be Tuesday night. Snow will once again lighten up and come to an end during the day Wednesday as high pressure moves into the area and the pressure gradient loosens. High pressure will allow ridging to develop by Thursday, which should finally break the mountain ranges out of low cloud cover. It's still early, but high pressure should stay in control through the weekend, and it should be a nice one for winter hikers and backcountry skiers.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1775847642729242667 

7:25 am 2 S Lexington, MA - Not what you expect to wake up to in April! 1.0" of snow and sleet on the board this morning, roads covered in a thick layer of slush. Very unpleasant wind-driven snow falling at the moment. Temperature 33°. Elevation 270'. Spotter ID 21-207 @WX1BOX

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1757465492422336792 

1:00 pm 2 S Lexington, MA - Storm total 1.0" on the board, snow tapering off now. Temperature 32°. Elevation 270'. Spotter ID 21-207 @WX1BOX

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1757386747925725414 

Looking at obs this morning, modeling was in fact too far south, but not as far south as I had thought. Shift everything ~50 mi south. Honestly still surprised what happened with this storm, was so sure this was going to be an interior snowstorm.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1757157621759426762 

Here's my final snow map for this system. I think the south trend over the past day was overdone, so my forecast isn't quite as far south as the latest model depictions.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1757019466343346281 

Remarkable south trend over the past day, enough for me to completely throw my old forecast out the window. New snow map coming today.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1756464747115868481 

Here's my first stab at a snow map for Tuesday's system. I'm anticipating a north trend leading up to onset, but if that doesn't happen everything will need to be adjusted south.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1756300891039080674 

I've been waiting for more consistency to make this post, but I think it's safe to say there has been a south trend with Tuesday's system over the past couple of days. Would watch for the last-minute north trend though.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1755344904060879339 

Much stronger signal for an interior snowstorm with today's 12z suite.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1755212340063064507 

Next snowstorm threat in this quiet pattern is early next week. Once again, the interior is favored, especially with a lack of cold air in place ahead of the system.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1751235790288392461 

Here's my stab at a snow map for tomorrow's system. Do think this one will leave some coastal folks disappointed (or joyous, depending on your perspective). Higher elevations look to make out well though.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1750251030489485712 

Next real snowstorm threat is the Sunday-Monday timeframe. With no cold air in place, I would favor the interior. While there is some potential for back-end snow for the coast, I would be skeptical of that possibility, especially at this range.