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Blog
Since 2021, I've been posting online about the weather both locally and around the country on various platforms. What started out as updating weather articles on Wikipedia grew into a genuine passion for learning, to the point where I'm now making my own observations and forecasts. This blog is a record of that journey. If a blog post was originally made on a different platform, as most of them were, the original post is linked.
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March 7, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1633091328530677762
We have made it 12 straight days with 1"+ of snowpack in Lexington. I don't think we're going to make it to 13.
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March 4, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1632157927694905344
Observed snowfall totals from this system (per @NWSBoston). Slightly underestimated totals in the Berks and slightly overestimated totals in interior SE Mass. Otherwise I would say I did quite well. Giving myself an A- for this forecast.
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March 4, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1632067540880068609
12:15 pm 2 S Lexington, MA - 3.6" on the board now. Moderate snow for the past three hours only added about 0.9" of additional accumulation. Snow is lightening up now; I think we're done with accumulation for the day. Temperature 34°. Elevation 270'. Spotter ID 21-207 @WX1BOX
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March 4, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1631994921778397185
2.7" of snow/sleet overnight in Lexington. Light sleet falling at the moment. Yesterday I set the over/under at 5.1", looks like we'll fall a bit short of that.
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March 3, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1631707631222915073
Snowfall forecast for Friday-Saturday's system.
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March 2, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1631348719340642308
I like the NBM for Friday-Saturday. I would go with a sharper gradient inside 10 miles from the EMass coastline though. Most of the snow falls Friday night so sun angle/warmer temps are a non-issue, especially W of I-95.
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March 2, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1631267862420545537
For the first time this winter, we have made it one straight week with 1"+ of snowpack.
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March 1, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1631062749919756288
NWS Boston has gone remarkably conservative for Friday-Saturday. Somewhere in between the Euro and NAM. Seems to be prioritizing elevation, though I don't think that will be as relevant since the issue here is warm air aloft. The NBM does a better job with this IMO.
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March 1, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630954635920809985
Here's the NBM for Friday-Saturday. Not a bad look north of the Pike and away from the immediate coast.
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February 28, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630752365388201986
Actual snowfall totals below (from @NWSBoston). I overestimated totals in NCentral and NE Mass, and underestimated totals in coastal RI, SE Mass, and the Vineyard. Was generally on the right track for most people though. Giving myself a high B for this forecast.
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February 28, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630667352281849857
Storm total 1.9" on the board in Lexington, including some compaction and melting this morning. Marginal temps made accumulation difficult even with decent rates throughout the day today. Snow is lightening up now, and additional accumulation appears unlikely.
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February 28, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630552100013834242
1.6" overnight in Lexington. I sense a bust incoming.
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February 27, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630232896307904514
No changes to the forecast today. Models seem to have fallen into place overnight.
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February 26, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1630004802632515585
First call snowfall forecast for our system tomorrow night-Tuesday. Still some uncertainty in the forecast for EMass, based mostly on how far west that mixing line makes it. Should be all snow west of I-95 though. Models still not quite in agreement so changes will be made.
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February 25, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1629636657010843649
Storm total 0.7" in Lexington, 2" snowpack now. Season-to-date at 21.3". The average this far into the season is ~41"; still running ~20" below average.
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February 23, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1628734403152158722
2.8" of snow/sleet in Lexington overnight. Thin layer of ice about an inch deep, suggests that we did get some freezing rain overnight.
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February 22, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1628591633389301765
0.5" of snow so far in Lexington, everything is nicely coated up. Looks like I'm getting missed by the heaviest snow on radar though.
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February 21, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1628016413632868352
Pleasant surprise this morning in Lexington. Broke a 21-day streak without measurable snowfall in the middle of winter. Still snowing too.
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February 1, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1620973801948303363
Seasonal snowfall for the last three winters at my house in Lexington. Just from this graph, it may not seem like we're that far behind this winter, but with an abysmally warm first half of February ahead there's no chance we're catching up anytime soon.
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January 31, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1620438777557811203
0.5" of fresh snow earlier this morning brings the season-to-date to 16.9" in Lexington. Starting to fall behind again with no major snow expected in the next week and mild temperatures to follow at least through the first half of February.
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January 23, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1617667896326639616
First 6"+ snowstorm in Lexington since February 25, 2022. Serious overperformer today!
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January 23, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1617622505585520640
3.6" of back-end snow so far in Lexington, 2.4" in the past hour. Some of the best snowfall rates I've seen in my life. Winter wonderland out there.
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January 22, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1617236345386049536
Snowfall forecast for our system tonight-tomorrow. Back-end snow events tend to underperform, so I've gone somewhat conservative for the lower elevations. Higher elevations of the Berks and N Central Mass make out well.
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January 21, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1616870712316395521
Snowfall reports from our system pictured below. I underestimated the importance of elevation with this system, but otherwise I had the general idea right. Underestimated the totals in south-central Mass, overestimated closer to the coast. Giving myself a high B- for this one.
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January 20, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1616554612298862592
3.1" of fresh snow yesterday-today brings the season to 10.3" in Lexington. Season finally into the double digits.
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January 19, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1616162278306643968
No changes to the snowfall forecast today. First wave of precip through tonight will drop 3-6" of snow for far northern MA, rain changing to sleet/ice north of the Pike, and all rain south. Friday's wave of precip will drop an additional 1-3", bringing most people up to forecast.
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January 18, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1615853796147470337
Preliminary snowfall forecast for our system tomorrow into Friday. Main thing to note is that sleet with our first wave of precip may cut down on some of these totals south of Route 2. Generally the further north you are the more snow you will see.
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January 17, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1615549594544340992
Rough first thoughts for Thursday-Friday's system in the Northeast. MA-NH border northwards locked in on a good snowstorm. Area north of the Pike but south of Route 2 is the current battleground between all snow and sleet/ice issues. South of the MA-CT border is mostly rain.
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January 16, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1615131719786713089
Reported snowfall totals with our system below. My forecast was accurate for most of EMass, with decent placement of both the 2-4" and 4-7"+ zones. However, I was way off for RI, which ended up with C-1", and underestimated the totals in WMass. Giving myself a B- for this one.
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January 16, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1615056122263572501
2.9" of fresh snow with yesterday-today's system brings the season to 7.2". Slowly catching up to average, which is ~17" for January 16.
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January 15, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1614631628327763968
Snowfall forecast for our system today into tomorrow. Sharp gradient in snowfall totals; a small shift in storm track can and will make a big difference in what you see in your backyard. I've gone bullish for SE Mass and the Cape, but sleet or frz rain may interfere a bit there.
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January 12, 2023
Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1613607766332932097
Models have trended Sunday's ocean storm NW quite a bit since yesterday. SE Mass and the Cape have the best chance of a plowable snowfall with this one, but if the NW trend continues then Boston and NE Mass might get in on it too. Worth watching, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
