Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1613571394322993152 

Surprise winter wonderland this morning in Lexington with 0.1" last night from ocean-effect and another 0.3" and counting this morning from our cutter. In a snow-deprived winter, I'll take it.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1612252462710419456 

Ensembles do a pretty good job at highlighting the uncertainty with the system towards the end of the week. There is an approximately equal quantity of members showing cutters/coastal huggers and OTS systems. Point is, any storm track is still on the table.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1611843033242140672 

Map of observed snowfall totals from yesterday's system. Elevation played a big role, been the theme most of this winter. Jackpot in north-central MA, but Berks and interior NE Mass did pretty well too.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1610993163228905475 

NWS forecast for tomorrow's snowfall threat. Looks like a C-2" along the North Shore, in WMass, and northern RI, where the event is either light snow or heavier precip but rain. Heaviest snow bands set up in the Worcester Hills and NE Mass west of I-95, where 2-4" is likely.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1609920647206936576 

Next chance of snow looks to be a minor system around Friday. Before that, on-and-off rain Tuesday through Thursday, maybe ending as a mix in the higher elevations. Temperatures back down closer to average by the weekend, but doesn't look like any major snow chances afterwards.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1603544620528435201 

Rough snowfall forecast for tonight-Saturday's system. Highly elevation-dependent snowstorm: areas above 1,000 ft in the Worcester Hills, Berkshire County, and NW CT get some pretty hefty totals. Rain/wind event for everyone else.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1601948962495291394 

Not going to make an updated forecast, but here are the main changes: 1) shift the 1-2" area east to include more of NE CT, NW RI, and nearly all of Worcester County. 2) Shift the eastern edge of the 2-3" range to the western border of Worcester County and the corresponding area in CT. 3) Expand the 3-5" area west to the MA border and east to central Franklin, Hampshire, and Hamden counties.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1601654844867383297 

Final snowfall forecast for this weekend. Main 1-2" area shifted west, still an isolated 1-2" possible in a small area of Norfolk County from ocean effect. 2"+ in NW CT and western MA. 3-5" possible in the Berkshires. Difficult system to forecast.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1601419560313159680 

Preliminary snowfall forecast map. This includes tomorrow's potential ocean effect as well as Sunday night's shortwave. C-1" east of I-495, but I think Norfolk and Plymouth counties in MA could pick up 1-2" in total with the ocean-effect. Tough forecast with this one.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1601349959001182208 

Models still pretty disputed this evening, but I think the NBM does a good job at what it's supposed to be doing. Bullseye still likely in the Catskills but have to watch for a band forming across Norfolk County, dropping an isolated 1-2". GFS, CMC, RGEM all on board with this.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1600882529791508480 

Most models have backed off considerably on the snow threat overnight, and the NBM reflects that. Could pick up 1-2" from ocean effect along the South Shore though.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1600511342351466496 

Decent chance for a weak, flat system to bring some snow in the late weekend timeframe. CMC was the first to spot this one, but its snowfall totals are probably a bit too bullish. GFS and Euro solutions both pretty realistic. Not much else to watch in the near future.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1592660137957011456 

First snow map of the season for tonight's system. This is probably a bit bullish but we're going with it.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1502466769604292611 

[Friday 3/11] Snowfall forecast for Saturday's winter storm. This could shift depending on storm track, and slight differences in temperature may increase or decrease totals in certain locations as well.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1499509405154516995 

Watching the March 11-15th timeframe for a potential Arctic air outbreak across the eastern US, as well as a potential winter storm threat. Way too early for really any details, but going to be watching this.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1499180896976519168 

Quick-moving clipper system with snow and rain tonight. Likely a wet snow north of the Pike, with rain to the south. Only a C-1" of snow for most, maybe a bit more than 1" in that area just north of the rain-snow line.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496855581344538626 

Final call precip type and amount forecast for Friday's potential winter storm. Mesoscale guidance not quite in agreement so this may be off for some, but should be mostly accurate if the guidance is correct.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496526232984428544 

For Friday's system, I don't think the NAM solution is going to be correct due to the model having a history of underestimating CAD especially with an Arctic HP to the north. Some of the global guidance may be a bit too cold as well, I do think the sleet makes it into at least some of SNE. The RGEM, somewhere in between, is most likely to be a more accurate solution here, sleet in the southern half of SNE, all snow north of the Pike. The model has also done rather well this winter as well.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496509108580724744 

The 12z NAM has sleet all the way into southern New Hampshire, as opposed to the global guidance which is all snow north of the Pike. The NAM often does underestimate CAD, and tends to be warm-biased, so I would put more weight on the global guidance for now.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496487707991846915 

First call precip type and amount forecast for Friday's potential system. Still time for shifts with this one, final call forecast releases tomorrow morning.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496154701846437891 

Snowfall totals with the typically conservative 12z NBM. Very similar to today's global operational and ensemble guidance, highlighting the area north of the Pike for the heaviest snow. Still some shifts likely with this forecast.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496136975761514508 

Very rough first thoughts map for Friday's potential system. Take this with a grain of salt, still a lot of room for change with this one, but this is a general idea of what is likely to happen based on the latest guidance.

Original: x.com/PC8923/status/1496116277148065799 

Overnight operational and ensemble guidance has trended colder and south. The latest runs keep it all snow into far northern CT and RI, and also increased the snowfall totals to the north as well. By tonight we'll have a fairly clear picture of what is likely to happen.